Saturday, 25 February 2023

12pm Washington D.C. 
5pm London 
6pm Lagos / Kinshasa / Paris 
7pm Cape Town / Cairo  
8pm Nairobi

The presidential election in Nigeria – taking place on February 25 – is as unpredictable as it is intriguing. For starters, it will mark the biggest election in African history with almost 100 million voters registered to participate. Whomever emerges victorious, the country will have a new president after Muhammadu Buhari stands down, having already served two terms. But does that mean that citizens will get the change that many are demanding? Amid security and economic concerns, the legitimacy of government is under growing threat, prompting a vibrant debate about whether Nigeria is a failing state – or has failed already.

The potential for the election to kickstart a process of genuine transformation largely hinges on two elements: 1) who wins and 2) and whether or not they can deliver once in office.

The two main political parties, the APC led by Bola Tinubu and the PDP led by Atiku Abubakar, face a major new challenger in the form of a ‘third force:’ Peter Obi. Obi is standing on a Labour Party platform, exciting younger and reform-minded Nigerians by promising to break with Nigeria’s patronage politics and deliver on long-overdue security sector reforms. But there are real questions about whether he can translate his inherent popularity – according to many opinion polls – into votes in the absence of the kind of political machines that both Tinubu and Abubakar have at their disposals.

Given the popularity of all three major candidates, the election is a true toss-up. And an unprecedented second-round runoff is a strong possibility.

The immediate to-do list for whomever ultimately wins the election is tall and daunting: reforming the security forces, creating jobs for young people, ending human rights abuses, and breathing new life into the social contract. Powerful interests who benefit from the status quo will surely seek to block reform and the economic outlook is also extremely challenging.

Taking place on Election Day in Nigeria, this Twitter Space will convene some of the country’s leading analysts to discuss the election, the key issues at stake, and how Nigeria can move forward towards the sort of prosperity many citizens are yearning for.

Meet our speakers

Moderation