The Wagner Group in Africa: Myth vs. Reality
Monday, 14 August 2023
12pm Washington D.C.
5pm London / Lagos / Kinshasa
6pm Paris / Cape Town / Cairo
7pm NairobiOn 26 July, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was 'taken hostage' and then overthrown in the latest coup to hit West and Central Africa. This latest coup d'état has increased the number of successful coups experienced in the West African sub-region to six over the past two years.
As in previous military takeovers -- in Burkina Faso and Mali, for example -- the coup leaders captured headlines around the world, especially as the junta and its supporters denounced France while lauding Russia. A group of Nigerien protestors even waved Russian flags as they attacked the French embassy. These striking images inspired a wave of media commentary suggesting that the coup was a victory for both Vladimir Putin and the Wagner mercenary group who, it is said, are expanding their network across the continent. Events in St Petersburg on the same day as the coup provided evidence for this interpretation: Mali's interim president arrived in Russia for the Russia-Africa summit in which leaders from Burkina Faso and Mali made speeches supporting Putin and backing his illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The vast majority of commentary thus far, however, has been deeply flawed. Russian economic involvement in most African countries is marginal, while Russian aid and trade investments are not sufficient to replace that of European countries and the United States for any length of time. Wagner's physical presence is also much smaller than is often claimed. The erroneous -- and increasingly farcical -- maps that purport to illustrate countries with a Wagner presence massively inflate the group's overall capacity and activities.
Moreover, the motivation for the recent raft of coups in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan has been rooted in domestic problems. In the case of Niger, military leaders appear to have acted, in large part, to protect their own positions after the president drew up plans to replace them.
This show will therefore seek to separate myth from reality, bringing together leading journalists, activists, and researchers to discuss where Russia and Wagner are significant actors (and where they are not). We will also explore why some citizens and commentators see Russia as a preferable partner going forward, despite its bevy of economic woes, history of political repression at home and imperialism abroad, as well as its limited investment in Africa.
Meet our speakers
Marisa Lourenço
Marisa Lourenço is a political and economic risk analyst with a special focus on the southern Africa region. She has appeared on major news networks and published extensively in a range of outlets, including most recently on issues pertaining to the Russia-Africa Summit and the spate of military coups across the Sahel.
Kessy Ekomo-Soignet
Kessy Ekomo-Soignet is an accomplished peacebuilding expert and community leader in the Central African Republic. Kessy is the founder of URU, a nationwide NGO that works toward the effective participation of young people in CAR's peace and recovery process. She was an inaugural Mandela Washington Fellow, and is a current member of the U.N. Advisory Board on Youth, Peace, and Security.
Samuel Ramani
Samuel Ramani is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and is among the world's most astute analysts on issues related to the Wagner Group. Samuel is the author of the recent books ‘Russia in Africa,' which examines Russia's post-Cold War foreign policy towards Africa, and ‘Putin’s War on Ukraine.' He has been published in Foreign Policy and the Washington Post, and has appeared as a guest on the BBC, Al Jazeera, and CNN.
Beverly Ochieng
Beverly Ochieng is an Africa security and political analyst at BBC Monitoring, a division of the British Broadcasting Corporation that monitors mass media worldwide. She is an experienced journalist and a frequent commentator on security developments in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on West Africa, the Sahel, and Wagner Group activities.
Discussion
John Lechner
John Lechner is a freelance journalist and researcher who has considerable experience reporting on the politics of Russia and African nations, with a special focus on Central African Republic. He has published in Foreign Policy and other high-profile outlets on the Wagner Group and has a related book that is due to be released in 2024.
Nic Cheeseman
Nic Cheeseman is the Professor of Democracy and the Director of the Centre for Elections Democracy Accountability and Representation (CEDAR) at the University of Birmingham. As well as the author of Democracy in Africa and How to Rig an Election, he is the editor of Democracy in Africa, a columnist for Africa Today and the Mail&Guardian, a contributing editor to The Continent, and an election junkie.
Moderation
Mantate Mlotshwa
Mantate Mlotshwa is a passionate advocate for the meaningful contribution of women and youth to democracy and governance processes. The Founder of the creative brand U Motle, she has earned a reputation for speaking her mind and promoting positive messages of liberation and emancipation in Zimbabwe and beyond.
Jeffrey Smith
"Jeffrey Smith is an award-winning human rights campaigner, social media influencer, and a prolific writer. He is co-creator of The Resistance Bureau and also founding director of Vanguard Africa, a global nonprofit organization that partners with visionary African leaders to build campaigns for democracy and ethical leadership.