The Wagner Group in Africa: Myth vs. Reality
Monday, 14 August 2023
12pm Washington D.C.
5pm London / Lagos / Kinshasa
6pm Paris / Cape Town / Cairo
7pm NairobiOn 26 July, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was 'taken hostage' and then overthrown in the latest coup to hit West and Central Africa. This latest coup d'état has increased the number of successful coups experienced in the West African sub-region to six over the past two years.
As in previous military takeovers -- in Burkina Faso and Mali, for example -- the coup leaders captured headlines around the world, especially as the junta and its supporters denounced France while lauding Russia. A group of Nigerien protestors even waved Russian flags as they attacked the French embassy. These striking images inspired a wave of media commentary suggesting that the coup was a victory for both Vladimir Putin and the Wagner mercenary group who, it is said, are expanding their network across the continent. Events in St Petersburg on the same day as the coup provided evidence for this interpretation: Mali's interim president arrived in Russia for the Russia-Africa summit in which leaders from Burkina Faso and Mali made speeches supporting Putin and backing his illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The vast majority of commentary thus far, however, has been deeply flawed. Russian economic involvement in most African countries is marginal, while Russian aid and trade investments are not sufficient to replace that of European countries and the United States for any length of time. Wagner's physical presence is also much smaller than is often claimed. The erroneous -- and increasingly farcical -- maps that purport to illustrate countries with a Wagner presence massively inflate the group's overall capacity and activities.
Moreover, the motivation for the recent raft of coups in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan has been rooted in domestic problems. In the case of Niger, military leaders appear to have acted, in large part, to protect their own positions after the president drew up plans to replace them.
This show will therefore seek to separate myth from reality, bringing together leading journalists, activists, and researchers to discuss where Russia and Wagner are significant actors (and where they are not). We will also explore why some citizens and commentators see Russia as a preferable partner going forward, despite its bevy of economic woes, history of political repression at home and imperialism abroad, as well as its limited investment in Africa.